Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
